A U.S. Marine Corps F-35C stealth fighter prepares to take off from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in the Arabian Sea, Jul. 6, 2026 (CENTCOM via X)

1. Following renewed Iranian attacks, the United States carried out new strikes against Iran this week, as President Trump declared the ceasefire was “over” and ended sanctions relief.

• Tehran is allergic to peace: The regime’s Tuesday attack on three tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz may have dealt the final blow to the short-lived U.S.-Iran ceasefire that started June 17. The United States responded with two rounds of retaliatory strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In turn, Iran has attacked several U.S. military bases and regional partners. Explaining Tehran’s actions, Trump said, “They’re sort of crazy.” The President gave Iran the chance to negotiate, but they chose to keep fighting instead. He now doubts whether a deal can be made. What’s changed? “I got to know them,” explained Trump.
• Kiss sanctions relief goodbye: As the White House resumes kinetic action against Iran, it is also terminating sanctions relief provided as part of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) when it was hopeful Tehran would negotiate. General License X allowed Iran to produce, ship, and sell its oil for 60 days. Treasury revoked those authorities and provided a 10-day winddown period to complete deals already authorized under the general license, so long as any payments to any sanctioned individual or entity are placed into accounts monitored and authorized by the U.S.
• Restart Economic Fury: Revoking General License X is a step in the right direction, but if the Trump administration is serious about restoring pressure on Iran, it should not stop there. FDD’s Max Meizlish recommends Treasury add China’s Bank of Kunlun to the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List. The bank is a key conduit for moving funds from Beijing to Tehran, and a 2012 U.S. effort to target the bank’s operations fell short. But Meizlish explains this new action would create fresh sanctions pressure that could lead Kunlun’s parent company to divest its ownership and let the bank fail, helping shut down Iran’s oil revenue streams.
• Zoom in on Pickaxe: While Washington was hoping the MOU would pave the way for real negotiations with Tehran, the regime was actually rebuilding its nuclear program. New satellite imagery of the deeply buried nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain indicates new construction inside the tunnel complex. Tehran’s actions violate its commitment to “maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program” in the MOU by any reasonable reading. Reopening the facility could let Tehran restart enrichment and weaponization efforts, warns FDD’s Andrea Stricker. The United States should insist on immediate inspections, and “If Iran stonewalls or continues construction, the United States must prepare credible military options to disable Pickaxe or render it inaccessible or inoperable,” Stricker adds.
• Dial in on internet freedom: At the NATO summit this week, Trump put a spotlight on the regime’s attacks on Iranians, saying, “They’ve hurt their people. They killed 54,000 people as of now that were protesting.” Congress should answer the President’s call to support the Iranian people by voting for S.Amdt.5902 and S.Amdt.6327 to the NDAA when they are offered on the floor. While Iran’s internet is partly back, access is limited, and the regime still holds the switch. These amendments would strengthen U.S. support for internet freedom, secure communications, and access to independent information in Iran. They also build on authorities established under Sec. 5124 of the FY 2025 NDAA, making this year’s NDAA the natural vehicle for advancing this effort.

President Trump holds a press conference at the 2026 NATO Summit, Ankara, Turkey, Jul. 8, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

2. President Trump closed out the NATO summit in Turkey by underscoring the “unity” of the alliance amid member state commitments to increase defense spending, but questions remain about Ankara’s role in the alliance.

• NATO comes together: After a closed-door meeting of NATO members on Wednesday, Trump declared, “The unity in that room was incredible. This was a tremendously successful summit.” Member nations announced $50 billion in additional funds for procurements at this year’s summit, following up on increased defense spending in 2025 by $139 billion. Member nations have also committed to expanding collective manufacturing capacity and working with industry to accelerate innovation.
• Allies can go further: These achievements come a year after NATO allies committed to allocating 5% of GDP to defense and other security-related priorities by 2035. While countries like Poland and the Baltic states have outpaced the rest, others are moving in the right direction but much more slowly. Trump should praise the high-achievers and dish out tough love to the laggards, say FDD’s RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and John Hardie. NATO will be strengthened with proper burden-sharing.
• NATO is worth supporting: The NATO relationship goes two ways. Americans benefit from NATO partners who support U.S. military operations and help carry the burden of deterrence in Europe, explains FDD’s Brad Bowman. Thousands of U.S. military aircraft took off from European bases in support of Operation Epic Fury while America’s military posture in Europe also facilitates U.S. power projection in the Mediterranean, Africa, and the Arctic. That is why NATO’s security is in America’s best interest. Yet an ongoing Pentagon review of America’s force posture in Europe threatens new reductions. Such excessive and premature U.S. military withdrawals from Europe would send a dangerous message to Moscow, Bowman warns, while reducing the deterrent force holding back further Russian aggression.
• Case in point: Reports late last week revealed that Washington warned Warsaw of Russian plans to attack Poland in the coming months to test NATO’s resolve. The attack could target critical infrastructure and see soldiers enter from Kaliningrad and Belarus. Moscow’s aim would be to pressure Ukraine’s allies to suspend the aid that Kyiv relies on to defend itself. Polish sources also warned that Russia may be hoping U.S. pressure would force Warsaw to negotiate instead of fighting back. These reports underscore the need for Washington to be careful about its public messaging on European security issues and maintain a force posture that will make Moscow think twice.
• And then, there was Turkey: At the start of the summit, President Trump announced he would remove sanctions imposed on Turkey after it purchased Russian air defense systems in 2019, saying, “It’s time. We don’t want to sanction friends.” Trump also said he would make a decision on selling F-35s to Ankara. But FDD’s Sinan Ciddi highlighted that the United States had made no change to its ban on F-35 sales to Turkey at the conclusion of the summit. The President specifically said, “I haven’t totally made up my mind.” That’s good news. It means Congress still has time to influence the administration’s decision and demonstrate the dangers of placing the world’s most advanced stealth fighter in the hands of a government that has close relations with U.S. adversaries.

The table at high-level U.S.-China trade negotiations, hosted at the residence of the Swiss Ambassador to the United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland, May 11, 2025.

3. It’s a mixed news week for China watchers. Beijing conducted an unprecedented and escalatory ballistic missile test in the Pacific while releasing detained Christian Pastor Ezra Jin, even as the fate of his fellow church leaders still detained remains uncertain.

• An unprecedented test: China launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean on Monday. The test was China’s first known demonstration of a sea-based strategic nuclear strike capability. The move drew sharp criticism from the United States and other Pacific nations. The missile landed near the island nations of Nauru and Tuvalu, inside the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. China tried to downplay the test as routine, urging countries not to “over-interpret it,” but the development is symptomatic of China’s nuclear buildup. State Department Spox Tommy Pigott warned, “Beijing’s rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup is of great concern to the region and the world.”
• Nuclear destabilization: “China’s recent missile test is a direct showcase of one of the most destabilizing elements of Beijing’s military modernization effort — its rapidly growing nuclear arsenal,” FDD’s Jack Burnham tells us. Beijing has expanded its arsenal from some 200 warheads to over 600 since 2020 and is on pace to continue growing. Burnham also noted that the test is further evidence that Beijing’s ambitions to project power extend beyond the First Island Chain, the string of islands that runs from Japan, through Taiwan, Philippines, and on past Malaysia.
• Reassure and invest: As Beijing continues to press boundaries and threaten the future of a free and open Indo-Pacific, the United States must reassure allies and partners of America’s steadfast commitment to the region. Burnham also tells us that this is yet another reason for Congress to seriously invest in missile defense systems under the President’s “Golden Dome” homeland missile defense network.
• Pastor Jin freed: After spending 266 days in prison, Pastor Jin was released on July 3 and allowed to travel to the United States. The release comes weeks after President Trump raised the pastor’s case with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Pastor Jin was one of 30 church leaders arrested in October 2025 in one of China’s largest crackdowns on a single congregation in decades. Eight remain detained. “While this move may be viewed as a diplomatic gesture, it should also be understood as a carefully calibrated political decision,” notes FDD’s Mariam Wahba, with Xi expected to visit Trump in September.
• One release is not a pattern: China’s campaign against independent religious practice remains among the most systematic in the world, explains Wahba. Protestant house churches continue to be shuttered, Catholic clergy loyal to the Vatican remain under surveillance or detention, and Beijing’s Sinicization campaign to conform all religion to Communist ideology presses ahead.
• What to do next: Individual prisoner releases aside, Wahba urges policymakers to “judge China’s religious freedom record based on sustained patterns of government behavior.” She explains that by that standard, China meets the threshold to be designated as a Country of Particular Concern under the International Religious Freedom Act. That redesignation should come with targeted sanctions on officials responsible for religious persecution and restrictions on technologies used to surveil religious communities.

President Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with President Zelenskyy at the 2026 NATO Summit, Ankara, Turkey, Jul. 8, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

1. President Trump announced that the United States will allow Ukraine to co-produce Patriot missiles this week, bolstering Kyiv’s defenses as its deep strikes batter Russia’s economy and fuel supply.

• Depleted munitions: The announcement is welcome news as Ukraine has virtually run out of Patriot missiles to defend itself against Russian ballistic missile attacks. The consequences have been devastating: Ukraine was unable to intercept any of the 23 ballistic missiles Russia fired at Kyiv earlier this week, killing 12 people and wounding nearly 50. Producing its own interceptors would mean Kyiv is less reliant on strained U.S. supplies to boost its stockpile. But ramping up production takes time, and some observers caution that Ukraine needs interceptors now. To that point, the President did say “some” interceptors could be sent immediately but did not offer specifics.
• Ukraine’s front foot: Even as it struggles to shield its skies, Ukraine is proving it holds more cards than some assumed in its fight against Russia. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes against Russia have intensified in scale and depth, hitting key arms production facilities and destroying much of its oil-refining capacity. This has led to fuel shortages and rationing across Russia. The situation has become so dire that Moscow has reportedly petitioned Kazakhstan to provide gasoline to help alleviate domestic shortages.
• Heaping pressure on Putin: The mounting economic toll in Russia is bad news for long-time President Vladimir Putin. Military costs, labor shortages, and sanctions have left Russia with inflation, a ballooning budget deficit, and depleted reserves, notes FDD’s Angela Howard, and the fuel crisis is compounding the strain. She explains that Putin’s war is upending the implicit social contract between the state and the people, where Russians accept authoritarian rule in exchange for stability and economic benefits. The result could be widespread and weakening support for the war in Ukraine.
• Seize the moment: As the war trends more favorably for Ukraine, FDD’s Ivana Stradner urges leaders to recognize that Putin is negotiating from a position of despair, not strength. Washington should double down on sanctions enforcement to compound economic pressure on Russia, explains Howard. To start, Treasury should designate shell companies that evade export restrictions on refining technologies, keeping Russia’s battered refining capacity from recovering. Howard also recommends that Washington consider new designations on the enabler networks recently designated by the EU and UK.

President Donald Trump participates in a Board of Peace meeting at the Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C., Feb. 19, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

2. The Gaza Board of Peace said it will judge Hamas’s handover of power “by actions, not promises,” after the terrorist group announced it dissolved its Gaza governing apparatus this week without taking the critical step of disarming.

• Hamas’s PR stunt: Hamas said it had dissolved the body that served as Hamas’s government to clear the way for the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a group of U.S.-assembled Palestinian technocrats, to assume power. Yet Hamas said its “technical and professional staff” will remain in their positions and that Hamas-appointed officials will continue to “oversee security and policing” in parts of Gaza. “In effect, the group will continue to rule at gunpoint, but quietly,” explain FDD’s Ahmad Sharawi and Natalie Ecanow.
• Who will truly reign? It is also unclear whether the NCAG can provide security in Gaza. Sharawi and Ecanow explain that the committee does not explicitly bar members of Hamas or other armed factions, even as Hamas seeks to fold its roughly 10,000-member police force into the NCAG’s security apparatus. Even if the force is vetted and cleared of Hamas members, the pair warn, “the group’s refusal to disarm suggests that the NCAG will have neither the will nor the capacity to confront Hamas militarily.” The effect would be a façade of NCAG authority while Hamas rules from the shadows, rather than a complete, verifiable dismantlement of the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza.
• Actions, not promises: The Board of Peace is right to make Hamas’s disarmament a benchmark of a genuine transfer of authority. Looking ahead, Washington should ensure that Turkey and Qatar do not go along with Hamas’s charade, write Ecanow and Sharawi. Both are Board of Peace members and Hamas mediators, yet have repeatedly demonstrated their support for the group. The Trump administration must also ensure that the NCAG police force, if it comes to fruition, does not fold Hamas affiliates into its ranks.
• Gaza’s slated governors: In a new memo, Sharawi and FDD’s David Daoud profile the 13 Palestinians tasked with governing a post-Hamas Gaza as members of the NCAG. Some members showcased support for terrorist activity, and others retain ties to sanctioned organizations. While the NCAG may represent the least-worst available option for governing Gaza now, Sharawi and Daoud urge Washington to keep investments conditional and conduct rigorous oversight.

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II aircraft from Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 231, Piney Island, NC, Jul. 1, 2026. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Dylan Swertfeger)

Restrict the sale and transfer of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking reentry into the F-35 program after it was removed in 2019 for purchasing Russian S-400 air defense systems despite repeated U.S. warnings. The F-35’s advanced technology makes it central to America’s dominance in future conflicts. Had the S-400 and F-35 operated in proximity or networked together in Turkey, Moscow could have gained valuable intelligence for shooting down F-35s flown by Americans and our allies. Moreover, Turkey has demonstrated its willingness, as recently as last month, to deploy U.S. combat aircraft to harass Western allies. Placing the world’s most advanced stealth fighter in the hands of a government that simultaneously fields Russian air defenses, shelters Hamas, and is openly hostile to our allies would harm the NATO alliance. It would hand a revisionist actor a capability it could turn against the very partners NATO exists to protect.

Testifying before the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, FDD’s Sinan Ciddi outlined what Congress can do to protect U.S. national security interests as Turkey seeks sanctions relief and advanced U.S. defense technology:

• Maintain sanctions and restrictions. Congress should preserve existing Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions and Section 1245 restrictions on the sale and transfer of the F-35. No advanced strategic weaponry should be transferred to Turkey while it retains the Russian S-400 system, sustains record Russian energy imports, and shelters Hamas.
• Investigate the ITAR and end-use questions. Congress and the State Department should investigate whether Turkey’s deployment of U.S.-origin F-16s to occupied Cyprus violated end-user agreements and International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) restrictions. They should also condition any future arms transfers, including F-16 upgrades, on guarantees that American systems will not be based in disputed or occupied territory.
• Designate and disrupt support for terrorism. The executive branch must hold Ankara accountable for its sanctuary to Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood networks and its role in weapons transfers and paramilitary operations. Congress should similarly press the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to return Turkey to the grey list for serving as a base for Hamas’s financial operations, as the U.S. Treasury Department has documented.

A view of the World Cup match between Paraguay and the USA at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California. Jun. 12, 2026. (Official State Department photo by Mateo S. Melendy)

🏟️ America may be out of the World Cup, but we’re still playing host, and this 2026 FIFA World Cup is getting serious. The knockout phase has ended, and the Quarterfinals are underway. Our sports commentator (read: intern) is back this week for an update on the tournament.

• Anddd we’re out: On Monday night, the U.S. men’s soccer team lost to Belgium 4-1, ending their run in the 2026 World Cup. Our star striker, Folarin Balogun, stepped back on the pitch for the game after his red-card suspension, and even though he gave us a boost, we were no match for the early goals by Belgium’s Charles De Ketelaere.
• A game to remember: Pubs across England and Wales stayed open until 5 AM last Sunday so fans could catch England’s high-stakes clash with Mexico at its famed Azteca Stadium. Jude Bellingham struck twice in 98 seconds, and Harry Kane’s late penalty secured England a 3-2 victory, ending Mexico’s 13-year undefeated run at the venue.
• Saying goodbye to a legend: The all-time leader in international goals, Cristiano Ronaldo, made his final World Cup appearance this week as Portugal was eliminated 1-0 by Spain. Following the game’s final whistle, a visibly emotional Ronaldo wiped tears from his eyes. But even in defeat, Ronaldo leaves the stage as one of its all-time greats. At 41, he became the first man to score in six different World Cups. Not a bad way to bow out.
• Unexpected farewells: There have been some shocking upsets this year, and top teams have been sent home early. One of the larger surprises came when Brazil lost to Norway in the round of 16. Before that match, Norway had won five games in their World Cup history (three of which were during this World Cup). Meanwhile, Brazil had won the entire World Cup five times!
• Who doesn’t love an underdog? Some smaller teams are also making names for themselves. Cape Verde became the smallest country to reach the knockout round, securing surprising draws against big teams. While it eventually lost to Argentina, it took the powerhouse team until the 111th minute to get ahead of the tiny island nation. Cape Verde’s success has been attributed to its 40-year-old goalie Vozinha, who blocked five goal attempts by Argentina’s famed Lionel Messi.

🗓️ Coming down the pike (World Cup edition): This weekend’s games ahead of the semifinals will be big ones. Tomorrow at 5:00 PM, tune into Norway vs. England as they showdown in Miami, followed by Argentina vs. Switzerland in Kansas City at 9:00 PM. The semifinals will take place early next week, and the final match will be at 3:00 PM on Sunday, July 19, in East Rutherford, New Jersey.