On Thursday, President Trump reiterated his threat to respond with force if the regime in Iran continues to kill innocent protestors, doubling down on a red line he laid out in a Truth Social post last week.
Red lines exist to be enforced. For too long, American presidents have drawn them only to watch adversaries cross without consequence. With more than 40 protestors reportedly killed, Trump has an opportunity to break that pattern and to do so at a moment when the regime is more vulnerable than it has been in decades.
The brave Iranian protesters see that. It’s vital that the United States does, too.
The Trump administration has notched tactical win after tactical win against Iran: killing Qasem Soleimani in 2020, imposing crippling sanctions on the regime, degrading its terror proxy network, and striking at the heart of its nuclear infrastructure.
But without follow-through, these tactical wins risk being lost to time. Iran has vowed to rebuild its nuclear program and continues funding terror proxies like Hezbollah.
The task for the U.S. now is to leverage these victories into a decisive strategic outcome. If there was ever a moment to press the advantage, this is it.
The regime faces a crisis on every front. Protests are spreading rapidly. The economy has cratered. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is reeling from a string of humiliating defeats. The Supreme Leader’s grip on power grows more tenuous by the day.
The administration has a full spectrum of tools at its disposal, from cyber operations to military assets. The United States could act covertly alongside kinetic action by the Israelis, or vice versa. But the opportunity to give Iranian protesters a major shot in the arm, and to enforce the President’s own red line, is too significant to pass up.
Whatever actions we take, the goal should be to weaken the regime, particularly its deadly repression apparatus, and maximize space for the Iranian people to determine their own future. We are not talking about installing a government or occupying Iranian territory. We are talking about enabling the Iranian people to fight for their country’s future on a more level playing field.
Some will counsel inaction. They’ll warn of the potential for Iranians to rally around the flag, of the possibility for escalation, or of getting drawn into another Middle Eastern quagmire.
But the evidence doesn’t support these fears. U.S. and Israeli strikes last summer did not cause Iranians to rally around the regime. It’s even less likely they would do so now, when the regime’s legitimacy is at rock bottom, and its people are risking their lives in the streets to oppose it.
We can’t forecast every possible outcome of a transition in Iran, and the risks are real. However, we should be confident in our ability to manage escalation. The U.S. and our allies have done so repeatedly since October 7.
The regime is so preoccupied internally that its ability to project power externally is limited. Its proxy network remains weakened, further constraining the regime’s response options.
Supporting the brave Iranian protesters isn’t nation-building or reckless interventionism. It’s a prudent and strategic calculus to deal a decisive blow to one of the world’s most dangerous regimes.
The best-case scenario is extraordinary: the seeds of a genuine democratic transition take root. An entirely new region could emerge, one no longer held hostage by a theocratic regime that has spent four decades killing Americans, exporting terror, destabilizing its neighbors, and pursuing nuclear weapons.
There may even be a scenario in which American action, combined with the regime’s unprecedented existential angst, creates leverage for a negotiated settlement that determines once and for all the fate of the Supreme Leader and Iran’s nuclear program. Though one might ask: why save a regime that is already on the ropes?
The United States has spent years building pressure on Tehran. Now that the pressure is working, the worst thing we could do is ease off just as our adversary is buckling.
History rarely offers windows this clear, and they don’t stay open forever. The Trump administration should act decisively, strategically, and soon to turn a string of historic tactical victories into the strategic triumph that has eluded American policymakers for more than forty years.
The Iranian people appear ready. The question is whether we are.