November 21, 2025 | Policy Alerts

Policy Alert: U.S.-Russia Peace Plan Risks Empowering Kremlin and Undermining American Interests

November 21, 2025 Policy Alerts

Policy Alert: U.S.-Russia Peace Plan Risks Empowering Kremlin and Undermining American Interests

Bottom Line Up Front

The Trump administration has reportedly been working with Russia on a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine—on terms largely favorable to the Kremlin. The 28-point plan proposes Kyiv cede territory not currently occupied by Russia and reduce Ukraine’s military in both size and weaponry, along with a potential constitutional ban on NATO membership. It also prioritizes the re-establishment of economic ties between the U.S. and Russia. 

U.S. officials had previously described the plan as only a “live document” and “framework of ideas,” but according to the latest news, the Trump administration is now threatening to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies to Ukraine unless Kyiv agrees to the U.S.-brokered peace framework by Thanksgiving. President Zelenskyy has agreed to negotiate on the plan and is set to speak with Vice President JD Vance later today.

The news once again raises the question: What conditions are needed for a viable deal and sustainable peace? As proposed, elements of the 28-point peace plan would undermine long-term peace by tipping the scales in Russia’s favor and encouraging it to renew aggression in the future. The concessions outlined would dangerously empower the Kremlin, reward Russian aggression, and undermine U.S. strategic interests by signaling to adversaries that territorial conquest and military coercion are viable paths to achieving geopolitical objectives. As negotiations continue, it is critical the Trump administration include Ukraine and European leaders, who will play a critical role in keeping any future peace.

This Policy Alert lays out elements critical to a successful deal to secure the best possible outcome for Ukrainian sovereignty, European security more broadly, as well as U.S. interests. It also outlines how Congress can help pressure the Kremlin into negotiating.

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

FDD Action Expert Analysis

“The fact that Kremlin officials are excited about this potential deal should be a cause for concern for every American. One of its many unrealistic demands is that Ukraine neuter its military, which is currently one of the best in the world. Another is that Kyiv concedes territory critical to its continued defense. Taken together, they indicate that Russia intends to use this deal to weaken Ukraine and continue its aggression. If these concessions are successfully forced on Ukraine, it would simply lead to another invasion from Russia in the near future. Putin’s genocidal campaign against Ukraine requires robust and credible security guarantees backed by the U.S. and NATO allies to ensure that Russian aggression is constantly kept in check.”

Daniel Vaynshteyn

Associate Director of Government Relations, FDD Action

What is Critical for a Successful Deal?

Ukraine must be at the table, and its future as a free and democratic nation should be non-negotiable.

  • Include Ukraine: As the victim of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked invasion, Ukraine’s participation in these negotiations and all conversations related to its future is critical for the deal to succeed and be seen as credible by other nations, particularly Ukraine’s European backers.
  • Don’t block NATO membership: The 28-point plan would also reportedly require Ukraine to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO and have NATO make a similar commitment. However, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians continue to support Ukraine joining NATO, and NATO just last year reaffirmed its support for Ukraine “on its irreversible path” to “full NATO membership.”
  • American support for arming Ukraine: While the plan reportedly proposes slashing Kyiv’s military, an overwhelming majority of Americans support continuing to help Ukraine, including by arming Kyiv with offensive weapons to force Russia’s hand. In fact, the same poll found Republican voters were more supportive of sending weapons than Democratic voters.

Ukraine must not be forced to concede territory that Russia does not occupy, especially its “Fortress Belt” in the Donetsk Oblast.

  • Keep the borders that Ukrainians have successfully defended: One possible concession that Ukraine would have to make is to cede the entirety of the Donbas region, which includes the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. In Donetsk, Ukraine still controls four key cities that make up its Fortress Belt. Its military has transformed these cities into critical military and logistics centers that play a critical role in Ukraine’s defense. If Ukraine cedes these cities, it will put Kyiv in a significantly weaker defensive position, allowing Russia to reinvade with greater ease and success.
  • Ukrainians oppose this concession: Recent public opinion polling shows that 71% of Ukrainians oppose the transfer of territories controlled by Ukraine to Russia. This shows that even if the Zelenskyy administration accepted this proposal, it would receive significant domestic pushback.

Moscow must return all the children it has abducted from Ukraine.

  • Require Ukrainian children’s release: Since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, Moscow has abducted roughly 20,000 Ukrainian children and is forcibly “re-educating” and “militarizing” them to fight against their own countrymen. The return of these children remains a priority, including for First Lady Melania Trump, who successfully secured the release of eight Ukrainian children.
  • Recovering Ukraine’s posterity: Ukrainian society cannot accept a scenario in which a large part of its future generation is held captive by Russia, facing horrific treatment merely for refusing to give up their identity. All Ukrainian children must be returned by Russia. 

Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine must not gain official recognition.

  • Recognition provokes aggression: The U.S. must not recognize Russia’s occupied territories as part of the deal. Not only would U.S. recognition reward Russia for its invasion and embolden it to continue its aggression, but it would also strain transatlantic relations, since the European Union would be unlikely to follow suit. If the Kremlin perceives its invasion as a legitimate means of gaining territory, it will continue to do so.
  • Unacceptable to Ukrainians: Recent polling from Ukraine shows 67% percent of the population opposes recognition of its occupied territories.

Any lasting peace plan must include snapback measures, rigorous oversight, and credible security guarantees to be effective.

  • Untrustworthy negotiating partner: Since 2014, Russia has violated diplomatic agreements in Ukraine over two dozen times. Putin cannot be trusted to abide by the conditions set for his nation in any potential deal.
  • Need for compliance mechanisms: Western nations must be allowed to conduct consistent and regular oversight to ensure Russia is not violating the agreement as part of a final plan. The deal must also institute clear and scathing snapback provisions to deter Moscow from breaking the deal, especially if it includes the U.S. and Russia renewing economic relations.
  • Security guarantees are key: The only credible way to prevent Russia from reinvading is serious and meaningful security guarantees from the U.S. and other NATO countries. Putin respects only one thing: military strength and the threat of force.

What Congress Can Do

Pass additional sanctions legislation against Russia. House and Senate leadership should bring bipartisan sanctions measures to a vote. Congress must give the administration more tools to cripple Russia’s wartime economy and achieve a lasting peace.

  • ✔ Endorsed: Sanctioning Russia Act (S. 1241 / H.R. 2548) establishes authority to impose sweeping sanctions, including on people, financial entities, energy exports, sovereign debt, and trade, to penalize Russia for refusing peace talks, violating agreements, or initiating new aggression against Ukraine.
  • ✔ Endorsed: PEACE Act of 2025 (H.R. 4346) empowers the Treasury Secretary to enforce sanctions on foreign financial institutions that facilitate significant financial services to Russian entities, to deter escalation of the Russia‑Ukraine conflict.

Hold Moscow accountable for war crimes. Russia’s continued mass abduction of Ukrainian children cannot go unanswered. Failing to respond only signals to the Kremlin that it can continue. Highlighting these crimes and taking appropriate measures to directly punish Russia for its actions will signal to Moscow that it must cease this cruel and inhumane practice as a precondition to any negotiated settlement.

  • ✔ Endorsed: Designating the Russian Federation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act (S. 2978 / H.R. 5757) would require the Secretary of State to designate Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism unless Russia returns the children it has abducted from Ukraine.
  • ✔ Endorsed: Calling for the return of abducted Ukrainian children before finalizing any peace agreement to end the war against Ukraine (S. Res. 236 / H. Res 564). This resolution would send a clear message to the Administration that the return of Ukrainian abducted children is a necessary step for a successful peace deal.

Confiscate frozen Russian assets by implementing the REPO Act. In 2024, the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act (Division F of H.R. 815) paved the way for the United States to begin to use seized Russian State assets to support Ukraine. Yet despite the bill receiving large bipartisan support from Congress, neither the Biden or Trump administrations have used the authority provided in the legislation. Confiscation of these assets will not only pressure Russia to negotiate but also financially support Ukraine without costing the taxpayer a single cent.

  • ✔ Endorsed: REPO Implementation Act of 2025 (S.2918 / H.R. 5835) would amend the law to require the administration to begin the process of transferring assets to Ukraine and would repurpose a sizeable subset of frozen Russian sovereign assets for Ukraine on a regular, set timetable.

Additional Resources

FDD ANALYSIS

REPORTING ON THE DEAL

Issues:

Russia Ukraine