U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter jet flies in airspace over the Middle East, May 8, 2026. (CENTCOM via X)

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran downed an American helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz and resumed missile attacks on Israel for the first time since the U.S.-brokered ceasefire two months ago.

• America hits back: The gloves are off. Following the Iranian downing of an Apache helicopter on Monday, the United States kicked off strikes on an array of Iranian military targets, with President Trump commenting, “They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!” CENTCOM carried out further strikes Wednesday night, hitting Iranian surveillance, communications, and air defense sites. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth explained the flurry of American military activity, saying, “It is not to restart the war but to set the terms for the deal.”
• Back to the negotiating table? Yesterday, Trump reported that he “cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran” as final points of a plan were approved. But the White House should keep in mind that Iran is much better at negotiating than it is at launching missiles, and the regime cannot afford the deal Washington wants. FDD’s Mark Dubowitz and Miad Maleki explain that the mullahs’ ideology means they have to “manufacture [legitimacy] from confrontation” with Israel and the United States.
• Negotiating hazards ahead: That is why sanctions relief will never make the regime behave. That would trade U.S. leverage for the illusion of calm, emboldening Tehran and its proxies. To break the cycle, Washington must keep the pressure on Iran’s oil and weapons networks, while denying the regime financial lifelines. Further complicating negotiations is Iran’s Hezbollah card. To understand why, we must look back to ancient history… a.k.a. five days ago.
• About last weekend: On Sunday morning, Iran-backed Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israel, leading Jerusalem to respond with strikes on a local headquarters. Tehran then stepped in, launching a volley of 30 ballistic missiles at Israel. Israel responded to Iran’s missile attack with two waves of strikes on targets linked to Iranian air defense and missile production. Dubowitz noted that although the immediate crisis subsided, the underlying danger remains: “Tehran has threatened further attacks in defense of Hezbollah, its Lebanese terror proxy, while Trump’s public hesitation has exposed an unnecessary rift between Washington and Jerusalem.”
• Why did Tehran strike? Even as U.S. and Israeli strikes have degraded the regime’s ballistic missile arsenal, FDD’s Behnam Ben Taleblu points out Tehran is actually willing to use its missiles for a growing range of reasons, including to cover one of its terror proxies. One reason for this behavior is its understanding of democratic politics and how it can influence foreign policy debates in the West. As FDD’s Miad Maleki explains, “Iran is activating Hezbollah not as a military instrument, but as a diplomatic one.” Tehran is telling Washington: “Give us a deal worth taking, and we can restrain our proxy.” This move is based on the regime’s sense of a growing rift between the U.S. and Israeli approaches to countering Hezbollah, and “the Iranian regime is extraordinarily skilled at exploiting exactly that kind of fracture between allies,” Maleki warns.
• Time for Washington to close ranks: Despite Tehran trying to use its influence over the Lebanon front as a bargaining chip, Washington should make clear that Lebanon is not part of the negotiation. As Dubowitz explains, “Allowing the regime to shift the conversation from its own aggression to its determination to protect Hezbollah only rewards escalation and invites further conflict.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Gimhae International Airport terminal in Busan, South Korea, Oct. 30, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

2. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang, North Korea, this week to meet with Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and celebrate the 65th anniversary of the China-North Korea mutual defense agreement.

• China’s support for North Korea: As Xi visited North Korea for the first time in seven years, he committed to expanding military, economic, and technological ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, as well as deeper strategic coordination.
• The radioactive elephant in the room: Notably absent from both leaders’ remarks was any mention of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, a striking departure from Xi’s 2019 visit, when he publicly endorsed denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The omission suggests Beijing is growing increasingly comfortable accepting North Korea as a nuclear state or has at least subordinated nonproliferation concerns to the strategic value of its alliance with Pyongyang, FDD’s Jack Burnham and Jiwon Ma explain.
• China’s aims at large: China directly threatens peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and seeks to undermine U.S. power. Xi’s trip signals that Beijing still sees North Korea as a useful source of pressure on the United States and its allies. As FDD’s Craig Singleton tells us, “Pyongyang helps pin down U.S. attention in Northeast Asia, sharpens pressure on Washington’s allies, and adds friction to an already crowded threat environment.”
• Axis of Aggressors dimension: In a forthcoming book, FDD’s Bradley Bowman, Elaine Dezenski, and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery unpack the multi-faceted cooperation of America’s authoritarian adversaries — namely, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea — unified by their shared hostility toward the United States and our interests. Beyond China-North Korea relations, Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops and millions of munitions to support Putin’s continued aggression against Ukraine.
• The Axis’s “pariah power”: Moscow has repaid the favor by helping Pyongyang develop its space, nuclear, and missile capabilities, and China may be tempted to increase its own assistance to North Korea in the future. Russia and China’s race to prove they are North Korea’s best partner is a race to the bottom for international security. Bowman tells us, “We should expect Russian and Chinese competition for influence in Pyongyang to result in additional diplomatic, economic, technical, and military assistance flowing to North Korea. That will erode American security interests further.” He warned that this “trilateral tango that mixes cooperation and competition” has already strengthened North Korea’s position.
• An axis-based approach: As the new axis deepens cooperation, sharing technology, know-how, and weapons, Bowman, Dezenski, and Montgomery warn, “It is increasingly dangerous for decision-makers and Pentagon planners to assume the United States will confront only one major combat operation at a time.” The authors describe dozens of new measures Congress could adopt to ensure the United States is prepared. For one, “Congress should also direct the Pentagon to scrutinize war plans in different theaters that rely on the same units and assets, which can only be in one place at a time.”
• ✅ Add to summer reading list: Keep an eye out for their book, Axis of Aggressors: Countering the Cooperation of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, coming out this summer. P.S. NatSec Roundup readers will see it here first.

A view of the U.S. Capitol dome, Jan. 26, 2022 (Architect of the Capitol)

3. National security legislation advanced in both chambers of Congress this week as the House and Senate set the table for the final six months of the 119th Congress. Here’s what you need to know to get up to speed.

• NDAA movement: The Senate Armed Services Committee reported its version of the FY 2027 NDAA on Wednesday night. While SASC has not released the text and committee report yet, you can find the executive summary. The House is scheduled to consider its version of the NDAA on the floor the week of June 29.
• Beyond the NDAA: This week, the House passed nearly a dozen foreign policy bills across a range of issues. This includes five endorsed by FDD Action that address Iranian drone technology and international terrorism; American critical mineral and energy supply chains; allied defense sales; and U.S. adversaries’ influence in Georgia.
• Restraining Tehran: As the United States wages a maximum pressure campaign against the regime in Iran, two of the bills passed this week would support this effort. The Block the Use of Transatlantic Technology in Iranian Made Drones Act (H.R. 2505) directs the Secretary of Commerce, in coordination with other agency heads, to develop a strategy to prevent the illicit transfer of foreign technology and components to Iran’s drone program. Meanwhile, the Tehran Incitement to Violence Act (H.R. 6230) requires the administration to assess whether to designate Iranian regime clerics who issued fatwas calling for the assassination of President Trump and other leaders.
• Securing America’s supply chains: Beijing’s grip on the critical minerals supply chains the United States depends on is a national security liability that requires action. The Senate should take up the now House-passed, bipartisan Developing Overseas Mineral Investments and New Allied Networks for Critical Energies (DOMINANCE) Act (H.R. 7037). It would give the federal government vital mechanisms to break China’s control over global critical mineral and strategic energy supply chains. The DOMINANCE Act would also codify the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement and authorize Energy Security Compacts with partner countries. Together, these tools would advance U.S. national security and economic interests “by helping build more resilient supply chains, expanding economic diplomacy, and providing more certainty for industry,” FDD Action’s Connor Pfeiffer notes.
• Confronting U.S. adversaries: The bipartisan Allied Defense Sales Act (H.R. 8665) would make it easier for trusted allies and partners to coordinate joint purchases of American-made defense equipment. The legislation would strengthen interoperability among allied nations and help partners acquire critical defense capabilities more efficiently. Lastly, amid lawmakers’ growing criticism of the ruling Georgian Dream Party, the Countering China’s Control of the Caucasus Act (H.R. 7668) would require the State Department to submit a classified report to Congress examining Russian and Chinese influence and intelligence activity in the country of Georgia.
• Reach out: If staff have any questions about these bills or need resources or ideas for the NDAA process, we can help — send us an email at [email protected].

An aerial view of the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., May 15, 2023. (DoD Photo by U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. John Wright)

1. The Pentagon added dozens of Chinese firms to its list of Chinese military companies, restricting the department’s ability to do business with them.

• New designations: On Monday, the Pentagon updated its Section 1260H list, which designates Chinese companies supporting Beijing’s Military-Civil Fusion program. This includes major tech giants like Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD. These firms have reportedly aided China’s military activities, from cooperating in cyberattacks on U.S. networks to providing sensor units used in autonomous robotic “wolves.” Although limited, the listing carries implications. Starting June 30, the Pentagon will be prohibited from contracting directly with any companies on the list under Sec. 805 of the FY 2024 NDAA.
• Full force ahead on MCF: “The unveiling of these designations sends a signal that neither China’s military-civil fusion program nor Washington’s technological competition with Beijing are on pause,” FDD’s Jack Burnham and Daniel Swift explain. The new listings highlight how Beijing leverages Chinese companies’ global integration to support its strategic aims and build an AI-integrated, “intelligentized” military. In essence, this means China could weaponize American companies’ technological advantages and the supply chains our military depends on in a crisis.
• Only a starting point: The new listings lack teeth without follow-on action, and American companies will continue funding China’s military modernization. To turn the tide, they recommend that the administration consider adding designated communications firms to the Federal Communications Commission Covered List, triggering U.S. procurement restrictions. The administration should also provide guidance to the firms behind benchmark stock market indices, like MSCI and S&P, on the risks of including 1260H companies.
• The Chip Angle: The Commerce Department should also investigate whether firms, like Chinese robotics startup Unitree, meet the threshold for its Entity List, Burnham and Swift urge. That designation would cut off the startup’s access to U.S. technology and supply chains.

Exterior of the U.S. Department of State Harry S. Truman Building, Washington, D.C., May 2024. (Official State Department photo by Linda D. Epstein)

2. The State Department issued new Nicaragua sanctions this week, targeting 100 individuals connected to the Murillo-Ortega dictatorship after a prominent political prisoner died in its custody.

• Visa restrictions: The State Department’s new sanctions bring the total number of Nicaraguan regime officials and their family members hit by U.S. visa restrictions to over 2,350. This move came as a response to the Murillo-Ortega dictatorship’s role in the death of Indigenous activist and political prisoner Brooklyn Rivera. As part of a brutal crackdown on political dissent, the Nicaraguan regime detained Rivera, holding him until his death in May. Not only did the regime deny him access to medical care for most of his imprisonment, but it also prevented his family from burying his remains.
• A bad track record: Rivera’s detention and death reflect the Nicaraguan regime’s continued repression of the Nicaraguan people. The regime also partners with U.S. adversaries. In recent years, Beijing has been Nicaragua’s chief foreign lender, providing it with over three-quarters of its total external borrowing. Managua also signed an agreement with Moscow in September to expand military cooperation through joint training and intelligence exchanges. At home, the dictatorship persecutes churches and other faith groups because their historic opposition to human rights abuses is a challenge to the regime. Despite being a deeply Christian country, Nicaragua’s leaders have perpetrated over a thousand attacks on the Catholic Church and prohibited over 27,000 public religious gatherings, banning all Holy Week processions for the past four years.
• Next steps: To address the Murillo-Ortega dictatorship’s oppression, FDD Action’s Connor Pfeiffer and FDD’s Samuel Ben-Ur explain that Washington has more tools at its disposal. It should use the existing Nicaragua sanctions framework to target additional regime officials in the National Police and Interior Ministry. The administration should also redesignate Nicaragua as a Country of Particular Concern under the International Religious Freedom Act. Lastly, the White House should deploy the $15 million that Congress allocated for democracy and religious freedom programs in Nicaragua for FY 2026.