October 10, 2025 | NatSec Roundup
Trump’s Gaza Peace Deal Advances, Hostages Set to be Released
October 10, 2025 NatSec Roundup
Trump’s Gaza Peace Deal Advances, Hostages Set to be Released
Welcome to FDD Action’s Weekly NatSec Roundup.
📄Exposing CCP tactics: FDD’s Craig Singleton testified before Congress this week. His explosive testimony exposed the extent of China’s gray zone warfare against U.S. interests and allies. Read (or watch) his testimony here.
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🚨 NEED-TO-KNOW THIS WEEK
1. Israel and Hamas agree to the first phase of President Trump’s peace plan, as Tuesday marked the second anniversary of Hamas’ 10/7 attack.
Peace on the horizon: Israel and Hamas on Wednesday agreed to the first phase of the 20-point peace plan proposed by President Trump last week. Negotiations began in Egypt on Monday with Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and the U.S. mediating. The Israeli cabinet voted early Friday to approve the deal. It will begin with Hamas freeing the remaining 20 living and 28 deceased hostages in exchange for Israel releasing 250 Palestinian prisoners with life sentences and a further 1,700 prisoners detained since the 10/7 atrocities. Israel will then withdraw its military to the agreed-upon perimeter lines.
72-hour clock for hostage release begins: Earlier today, President Trump’s Mideast Envoy, Steve Witkoff, posted to X that, “CENTCOM has confirmed that the Israeli Defense Forces completed the first phase withdrawal to the yellow line at 12PM local time. The 72 hour period to release the hostages has begun.” Based on the agreement, Hamas now has 72 hours to release all 48 hostages, living and dead.
The Peace President: Trump described the achievement as “the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace,” adding that “ALL of the hostages will be released very soon.” While the final hostage release is in reach, the full implementation of the deal will require painstaking commitment from all parties and continued pressure on Hamas and its backers. Gaps remain in both parties’ positions over the latter phases of the 20-point plan, including the future government of Gaza, whether Hamas will permanently disarm, and reconstruction of the war-torn enclave.
We will never forget: These developments in the region come as the world marks the second anniversary of Hamas’ 10/7 massacre, which ignited this bloody war. “Two years after the barbaric slaughter of more than 1,200 innocent people, including over 40 Americans, and the kidnapping of hundreds more, it is long past time for Hamas to lay down its arms, release every hostage, and accept the terms of the proposed peace plan,” said FDD Action’s Tyler Stapleton. FDD Action joined Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) this week at the Capitol to back bipartisan legislation honoring the memory of the victims and survivors of the 10/7 massacre.
Making the peace deal stick: Congress must now do its part to ensure Hamas and its foreign patrons cannot sabotage the roadmap ahead. Lawmakers should condition all U.S. assistance to the Palestinians as well as Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt on full compliance with the agreement and require verifiable steps to cut financial and logistical lifelines to Hamas. Congress should also press the administration to maintain maximum pressure on Iran, the chief sponsor of Hamas, through sustained sanctions enforcement and interdiction of illicit financing and arms networks. Finally, Congress must demand strict oversight of any reconstruction funding for Gaza to ensure it is tied to demilitarization, monitored by credible third parties, and channeled through entities untainted by Hamas control. Read the full list of FDD Action’s policy recommendations here.
2. New reporting exposes the scale and complexity of Tehran-Beijing sanctions-busting scheme, underscoring the urgent need for U.S. action.
Tehran’s buyers in Beijing: Despite the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign on Iran, the country has continued to profit from illicit oil sales, exporting an estimated average of 1.8 million barrels per day so far this year. China remains the largest purchaser of Iranian oil, taking as much as 90% of Tehran’s total exports in August alone.
U.S. adversaries scheming to bust American sanctions: In a bombshell report this week, The Wall Street Journal broke down Beijing’s methods for evading U.S. sanctions, which include Chinese companies building infrastructure in Iran as repayment for oil purchases. Two Chinese entities are key players in this operation: Sinosure, China’s state insurance company, and Chuxin, a Chinese shadow bank. Rather than paying Tehran directly, Chinese buyers deposit funds in Chuxin. In turn, Chuxin transfers money to Chinese builders for engineering projects in Iran, which are all insured by Sinosure. The U.S. has not sanctioned Chinese companies for doing civilian work in Iran or targeted large Chinese banks.
It’s time for the U.S. to urgently rethink its enforcement strategy: The U.S. must update its playbook to effectively curb Iran’s exports to China. “Sanctions alter behavior only when they impose enough costs on key players and infrastructure essential to the targeted trade,” explain FDD’s Aidin Panahi and Saeed Ghasseminejad. “Legal prohibitions matter little if tankers set sail, refiners process fuel, and banks clear proceeds. A sanctions framework that does not target these nodes will leave Tehran’s revenues largely unaffected.” To exert real pressure on Tehran, they advise the U.S. to focus on the choke points of maritime transport, refinery intake, and financial clearance. 5 Ways to Curb Iran’s Oil Exports to China.
Follow the money…and the law: Last year, Congress passed the bipartisan Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum or SHIP Act (H.R.3774) to impose additional sanctions on facilitators of Iran’s oil trade, specifically aimed at countering exports to China. Despite these new sweeping authorities, the lucrative China-Iran oil trade remains steady. It’s time to enforce the law and cut off funding for Iran’s terror activities.
3. Across Europe, alarm is growing over Russia’s escalating aggression, prompting renewed calls for greater defense spending and pressure on Moscow.
Unease growing in Europe: European Union President Ursula von der Leyen expressed alarm on Wednesday over Moscow’s “hybrid warfare” against Europe, including recent airspace violations, cyberattacks, and undersea cable damage. There has been a notable uptick in provocative Russian actions in recent weeks. She urged Europe to respond to these threats and ramp up defenses. Some Europeans have even proposed a “drone wall” to secure NATO countries against Russian incursions.
Finland leans in as new NATO frontline state: Finnish President Alexander Stubb visited Washington this week to advance U.S.–Finnish defense cooperation, including a proposed deal for American-built icebreakers using Finnish shipyards. Since formally joining NATO in 2023, Finland has rapidly transformed from a neutral buffer state into a heavily armed deterrent on Russia’s border, already exceeding the alliance’s 2% defense spending benchmark and planning further increases as it integrates into NATO command structures.
Russia’s hybrid warfare still includes election interference: Russia attacked Moldovan elections with “unprecedented pressure, disinformation, and interference,” seeking to destabilize the young democracy and prevent its integration into the EU. Yet despite Moscow’s meddling, Moldova’s pro-Western party secured a majority in recent elections. While Europe’s support was crucial in helping Moldova hold free and fair elections, the fight is not over. Moldova will continue to need Western support. FDD’s Ivana Stradner and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery urge Brussels to streamline Moldova’s membership into the EU and demonstrate to Putin that democracy will prevail over Russian threats and meddling.
Sanctioning Serbia: The U.S. appears to be enforcing sanctions on Serbia’s largest gas distributor in efforts to curb Russia’s oil revenue. Sanctions on the Russian-owned Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) had been delayed eight times since January. Belgrade is heavily dependent on Russian gas and NIS supplies over 80% of Serbia’s fuel products. As Russian aggression increases, it’s about time the U.S. follows through on its threats and ramps up pressure further on Putin.
First Lady reveals diplomatic backchannel with Moscow: First Lady Melania Trump revealed that she and President Putin now maintain an “open channel of communication” over the Ukraine war’s humanitarian toll, confirming that eight Ukrainian children have been reunited with their families within the past 24 hours. Russia has kidnapped an untold number of Ukrainian children (at least 19,500). Congress has weighed in with bipartisan legislation (endorsed by FDD Action) that would designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism unless it returns all abducted children. Members of Congress should cosponsor S.2978.
🏛️ AT THE WHITE HOUSE
1. Trump signed an executive order extending an Article 5-like security commitment to Qatar, which was followed by another deal inked today at the Department of Defense.
What the EO says: Trump authorizes “all lawful and appropriate measures—including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military” to defend Qatar.
Qatar also gains new foothold on U.S. soil: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Qatari Emiri Air Force will establish a training facility at Mountain Home Air Base in Idaho, the first such presence of a Gulf military force on U.S. territory.
Security guarantees without Congress? The administration appears to be offering Qatar what amounts to a de facto security guarantee through executive action, bypassing Congress.
And there’s an even broader concern: Doha’s leverage as mediator may be tied to benefits from Washington. Lawmakers should examine Qatar’s MNNA status and enforce transparency around influence operations.
2. With the UN “snapback” of sanctions on Iran now in effect, the U.S. and its allies must continue escalating pressure on the Islamic Republic.
More sanctions on Iran: The State Department announced sanctions on 44 individuals and entities tied to Iran’s weapons procurement and nuclear program.
Enforce zero-enrichment standard: Andrea Stricker argues only full dismantlement and rigorous counter-proliferation enforcement will prevent a renewed crisis.
UN snapback: The UNSC restored comprehensive sanctions on Iran on September 27, reimposing bans on enrichment, missiles, drones and arms transfers.
📆 COMING DOWN THE PIKE
Sunday, October 12 — President Trump will depart for the Middle East…
Monday, October 13 — NATO will begin its annual nuclear deterrence exercise…
Tuesday, October 14 — President Trump will meet with Argentinian President Javier Milei…
Wednesday, October 15 — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will travel to Europe…
🧾 REPORTING TO CONGRESS
Two key reports related to foreign policy and national security are due to Congress this week and next:
Iranian Nuclear Activity Intelligence Assessment: … (October 8)
Ukraine Security Assistance Report: … (October 16)
💡 HERE’S AN IDEA
South Africa is lobbying aggressively to be removed from the FATF “grey list,” … Policy Alert …
📣 WINNING MESSAGES
📖 KEEPING UP W/ FDD
On Iran
Increasing Pressure — Diplomacy without pressure won’t end Iran’s nuclear program (Tzvi Kahn | FDD Policy Option | October 6, 2025)
Houthi Update — A promise from Yemen’s Houthis isn’t worth the paper it’s written on (Bridget Toomey | FDD Policy Brief | October 7, 2025)
On Israel
Lessons Learned — How Hamas’s hostage tactic checkmated Israel’s war strategy (Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus | The Jerusalem Post | October 5, 2025)
Peace talks — Top officials to join Egypt ceasefire talks for third day of negotiations (FDD Flash Brief | October 7, 2025)
On Russia & Ukraine
Ukraine Under Fire — ‘Zero real reaction’: Zelenskyy frustrated over Western response (FDD Flash Brief | October 6, 2025)
Nuclear Escalation — Putin’s psychological warfare against the West has reached another terrifying level (Ivana Stradner | The Telegraph | October 3, 2025)
On China
Cyber Sovereignty — Promoting transparency regarding foreign adversary control (Jack Burnham & Johanna Young | FDD Public Comment | October 6, 2025)
China’s AI Weakness — Deepseek still lags top American models (Jack Burnham | FDD Policy Brief | October 7, 2025)
In Other News
ANC Backs Hamas — Hamas supporters gather in South Africa… (David May | FDD Policy Brief | October 3, 2025)
🎟️Here’s One More Thing…
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick joined other White House officials… “I am confident and hopeful that the next time we gather here, it will be to remember that tragic day — with all 48 hostages home,” Rubio said.
Back at the White House, President Trump met with Edan Alexander … shared moments from the meeting on X.
The next 72 hours will be critical — the world must continue to pressure Hamas to follow through on its commitment to release all hostages.
👋 Thanks for sticking with us! Until next week.
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